Bihar Assembly Elections 2015

Bihar Assembly Elections 2015: The future awaits long-term outcome!

By

S.K.T. Nasar

Kolkata

Many nicknamed Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 as Mini-General Election of India. This rubric proved right at the end of the process. Now that Bihar Elections are over, it is time to dispassionately revisit this outstanding show. Unfortunately, even a truly dispassionate account would not be seen as unbiased in the present charged din. The good news, however, is that there was no violent strife throughout the extravaganza. The Election Commission of India (ECI) ordered re-polling in only two booths. Parliamentary democracy has triumphed! The people of Bihar have won. Bihar has shown the way forward to India.

Bharatya Janta Party (BJP) propelled its campaign on a hyperbole. Their campaign was spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi and BJP President Amitbhai Anilchandra Shah. Only they were in public view. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) provided logistics from back stage in the early days; the veil blew off in later phases.

The grand alliance alias mahagathbandhan of Janta Dal (United) [JDU], Rashtrya Janta Dal (RJD) and Indian National Congress (INC) was unexpected because these three political formations were on war with each other until their coming together for Bihar elections. The notion of their joining hands appeared to be ridiculous and unsustainable. Electioneering by BJP-RSS was based on consideration that the mahagathbandhan was too fragile to fall apart even before ECI announced the elections. This assumption proved to be a grievous error of political judgment.

BJP-RSS entered the election fray as National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with smaller parties such as Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJSP/LJP) of Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, Bihar Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) headed by Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) [HAM(S)], Sampurna Vikas Dal (SVD) captained by Ranjan Prasad Yadav and the likes who had dissociated on personal grudge rather than ideology with either JD(U) or RJD.        

Nitish Kumar (JDU) was the sitting Chief Minister of Bihar at the launch of mahagathbandhan. Lalu Prasad Yadav (RJD) was, and still is banned from contesting elections for some more time to come. One-time friends, they were foes. Both rooted in Bihar have a vast experience of Bihar politics and chief ministership of the state. The foes-turned-friends have the know-how of national politics. They have both been well known as very effective and extremely assertive Union Cabinet Ministers. Calling them as mere caste leaders of Bihar would be erroneous. Mulayam Singh Yadav, the undisputed leader and founder of Samajwadi Party (SP) and Sonia Gandhi (INC) joined JD (U)-RJD coalition a bit late but nevertheless with enthusiasm. Thus the JD (U)-RJD-INC-SP combination was called the mahagathbandhan, the mega coalition. SP pulled out of mahagathbandhan when seat sharing was underway. JD (U) sacrificed 15 seats of 115 sitting Members of Legislative Assembly at that point in time. RJD was the winner in seat shares.  The final tally of seats to be contested was 100 (JDU):100 (RJD):40 (INC). The mahagathbandhan stood like one rock throughout the great election process. Mahagathbandhan was resurgent.

Composition of parties in NDA and mahagathbandhan was too confusing for common voters, but public has innovative ways to sort out issues. The common man recognised only two formations – BJP for NDA and mahagathbandhan for Nitish-Lalu duo. It was as if a two party election was being held! Communist parties for reasons known only to them entered the elections as one block independent of the two major formations. Communists were largely ignored by the electorate. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) founded by Asaduddin Owaisi put candidates in Muslim majority border areas i.e. Seemanchal districts but failed to win a single seat.

BJP-RSS family, the Parivar was overconfident and arrogant. Modi-Shah campaign was of lowly quality that was countered by Lalu head on. Modi had begun the campaign with the development agenda but without actionable plans for Bihar. Modi-Shah knew only Gujrat. Nitish-Lalu knew their Bihar. Modi’s Gujrat-model development agenda was demolished point to point with facts, figures and actionable approach for Bihar by Nitish. Modi was eloquent yet changing course of rhetoric. Nitish was lacklustre yet widely perceived to be honest, serious and consistent. INC of Sonia-Rahul struggled to climb up the electoral ladder yet was given due importance within mahagathbandhan. BJP-RSS, on the other hand, made Sushil Modi, a long-time active leader, play errand boy to Modi-Shah. Patrons of BJP such as L.K. Advani, M.M. Joshi and Jaswant Singh as also BJP leaders from Bihar were conspicuous by their absence during electioneering. Famous and experienced leaders such as C. P. Thakur and Shatrughna Sinha were not allowed by BJP to be seen in public. Thus, ‘Bihar’ was completely absent from BJP campaigning; ‘Gujrat’ and ‘RSS’ over dominated the scene. Bihar electors refused to buy this idea.

The tenor of campaigning was obnoxious from the beginning. Expressions such as ‘bad DNA’, ‘shaitan’ (devil), ‘brhmapishach’ (devil incarnate), ‘narbakhchi’ (cannibal) et cetera have left a clinging bitter taste. Suddenly, the inhuman lynching of Akhlaque by a mob at Dadri based on manufactured rumor that he had kept beef in his refrigerator took the centre stage. Then on cow and beef became the preferred rhetoric. Agenda of development were sidelined and finally abandoned. Unprintable expletives were freely exchanged. The mainstay of BJP-RSS collectively called the Sangh Parivar has always been anti-Muslim and hate-Muslim formula. This ideology not only pervaded Bihar electioneering but resorted to a fierce propaganda during the campaign. Mahagathbandhan were prepared for it; the Nitish-Lalu-Sonia   trio worked quietly among the masses notwithstanding the liberal use of electronic social media. Prashant Kishore, who had formulated strategies for Narendra Modi to win the 2014 Parliamentary elections, was hired by Nitish to assist JDU for the Bihar assembly elections 2015. Nitish matched Modi in the use of social media and surpassed the latter in placing developments achieved and developmental strategy for Bihar. Lalu consolidated the communities of Muslim-Yadav (MY), other backward castes (OBCs) and extremely backward castes (EBCs) in his typical style; his supporters campaigned door to door. Sonia-Rahul provided a national touch to mahagathbandhan. Thus, mahagathbandhan succeeded in connecting Bihar with India while the NDA harped on Gujrat state and the still-awaited achche din (good days) for India and for Bihar. Mahagathbandhan penetrated deep among masses. NDA hovered over Bihar.

The five-phase polling was remarkable thanks to Bihar electorate. Violence was not reported from anywhere. India waited for the counting of votes on 8 November 2015. India was glued on that day to television and radio since the morning as never before. Channel after TV channel began with reports of sweeping NDA victory. Mobile phones were busy and calls crisscrossed for over four hours. NDA supporters around India began bursting crackers, playing holi and exchanging laddus. Paid national channels enthusiastically showed this tamasha. Expert panelists and psephologists appeared on the screen to boast how real their predictions were and began talking about the post-election achche din. The merry making by NDA and hauling of always-on-TV experts suddenly stopped. Something grossly devastating appeared to have happened. ETV-Bihar was, however, reporting the true picture. National Channels were fooling viewers in India and beyond with lies. They took about four hours in coming to terms with the reality. And, the reality was that Mahagathbandhan, not NDA was wining Assembly seats. Shameless paid National TV channels never apologised to viewers for such unpardonable goof up. Here was the first disgraceful national fallout of Bihar elections. By noon time the results were becoming clearer. The rest is history. The final tally of seats won was: Mahagathbandhan-178 seats won {80(RJD)+71[JD(U)]+27(INC)}; NDA-58 seats won {BJP(53)+RLSP(2)+LJSP(2)+HAM(S)(1)}and Others-7 seats won [CPI (L)(3)+Independents(4). Mahagathbandhan turned out to be the winner.

The swearing in of the new government of Nitish Kumar on 20 November 2015 was gala. About two lakh persons had gathered at Gandhi Maidan, the most prominent venue in Patna where Quit India Movement of 1942 was launched and where Jaiprakash Narayan embarked on his total revolution. The new government formation was undoubtedly a national event. Party leaders from across the country such as Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Sharad Yadav, Sharad Pawar, Deve Gowda, Rahul Gandhi, Faruque Abdullah, Sitaram Yechuri, representatives of Dravid Munetra Kazhagham (DMK), Shiv Sena and Akali Dal et cetera were present alongside the Chief Ministers of nine states and one former Prime Minister. Two of his cabinet and BJP colleagues M. Venkaiah Naidu and Rajiv Pratap Rudy represented Prime Minister Modi. This list is long and dignitaries represented the whole of the country.

Bihar Governor Ram Nath Kovind administered the oath of office. Nitish Kumar took oath as the Chief Minister of Bihar for the fifth time. Tejaswi Kumar, the second son of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi both former Chief Minister of Bihar, joined the Cabinet and tipped to be the Deputy Chief Minister. Tej Pratap Yadav, younger brother of Tejaswi, inducted as a cabinet minister while taking the oath of Office, mispronounced a word that would convey the antonym of the right word. The Governor intervened and corrected Tej Pratap. It was apparent that Lalu had salvoed the first shot. Nitish has the backing of 71 JDU MLAs. Lalu has 80 RJD MLAs. Sonia has 27 INC MLAs. Sushil Modi of BJP has the support of 58 NDA MLAs.

Lalu is likely to, and in most probability will derail the governance of Nitish. BJP-RSS think tank is now chanting that the whole affair was restricted only to Bihar elections; nothing to do with either the Union Government or the national BJP leadership. India thinks otherwise.
We are watching with fingers crossed!

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